New report on future scenarios in Sudan

Published: Fri, 18 Sep 2009 19:50:17 GMT

NAIROBI, 18 September 2009 (IRIN) - Sudan is planning to hold elections in April 2010 and a referendum on southern autonomy the following year, but beyond this the future is uncertain, says a report entitled "Sudan 2012 - Scenarios for the Future".

The report is based on a study by Jaïr van der Lijn of the Netherland Institute of International Relations and commissioned by IKV Pax Christi and Cordaid.

Two key uncertainties will define possible scenarios in 2012 - will Sudan be united or will the North and South have gone separate ways? Or will there be a new war between the North and the South, or will there be no war?

"At present, the international community, governments, international organizations and civil society groups are primarily focused on stimulating implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and making sure an election and referendum take place...little time is given to thinking strategically about the period after 2011. What will happen in 2012 is barely touched on," the report says.


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Comments

David Widgington (Sun, 20 Sep 2009 18:57:53 GMT)
The report, Sudan 2012: Scenarios for the future, was released in the Hague on September 1, 2009. It takes an interesting and original approach to the problems of Sudan by looking ahead, past the much talked about 2011 referendum, to what Sudan could be like in 2012 based an four scenarios that would precede 2012. The report, based on a study by Jaïr van de Lijn, “is to contribute to the debate about how to stimulate peace, security and development in Sudan and to present options for international action.”

The material presented in the report comes from workshops in Malakal, Juba, Bor and Khartoum in May and June 2009, just after my own visit to Southern Sudan, although I went to Juba, Wau, Aweil and Abyei. Information comes from input during the workshops by local and international NGOs, faith group, politicians, government officials, civil society organizations and “others”.

The report defines four scenarios based on two uncertainties: 1) whether the country will be at war or at peace, and 2) whether the country will remain united or whether the south will secede from the north (see diagram below).

To read full review of report visit: http://southsudaninfo.net.

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